Tendencje w rozwoju sektora Zbożowego w Polsce w latach 1990-1999 i ich średniookresowa projekcja

The paper presents an overview of cereal sector development trends in Poland over the 1990-1999 period and summarises the main results of medium term projections of its development. The analysis indicates that cereal production in Poland is characterised by some fluctuations. In the years 1986-1990, average annual cereal crops were amounted to 26.1 mio. t in total, during the 1991-1995 period - 23.8 mio. t respectively, and then they reach the level of 25.9 mio. t in the years 1996-1999. The production recovery over the last few years has been achieved due to extensive methods. Poland traditionally belongs to net importers of cereals and cereal products. This mainly concerns grain and milled cereal products. High processed cereal goods represent the sole group of cereal sector products in the case of which a positive balance in foreign trade has been kept. Extrapolation from historical trends in production and demand indicates that in the medium run, the size of indispensable import is likely to decrease. It is assumed that the domestic demand for cereals could be fully matched by domestic availability due to stimulating the progress in agricultural production that results in higher yields.