Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania produkcji mleka w Unii Europejskiej do 2020 roku

The dairy market In the EU is regulated by the Common Market Organization for milk and milk products. This policy is influencing together with changes in the Common Agricultural Policy. Within the Health Check the European Commission proposed a milk quota abolition, which will come into force from the year 2015. This paper presents a scenario analysis of milk quota abolition and the influence on production, price and demand on farm gate milk, butter and skimmed milk powder. Analysis was divided on two groups EU-15 and ten countries whose accession to EU in the year 2004. Special case was made for Germany, France, Great Britain and Poland as the largest milk producers in the EU. Conclusions fl owing from analysis show decline of real milk farm gate price to the year 2020, about 20% in the comparison with the average from the period 2003–2005. The supply of milk will increase with simultaneous decline of butter production and skimmed milk powder. Unfortunately the majority of unfavorable changes will in the group of countries UE-10