Relationship between Forecast Error and some Retrospection Analysis Assumptions
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The article presents some useful methods for forecasting economical time series with trend and seasonal component. The example concerns milk time series for the years 1993-2000. The prediction was made by the following methods: Winter's exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition, harmonic analysis, extrapolating a trend of the same stage. The author presented the examination of the methods for the years 1995-2000, which gave satisfactory results - a right forecast highly depends on forecasting methods and number of forecasts. There is relatively weak relationship between the flashback period and the forecast error.
Article Details
How to Cite
Idzik, M. (2001). Relationship between Forecast Error and some Retrospection Analysis Assumptions. Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika I Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, (44), 61–73. https://doi.org/10.22630/EIOGZ.2001.44.21
References
DITTMAN P.: Metody prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. AE, Wrocław 1996.
FARNUM N.R., STANTON W.: Quantitative Forecasting Methods. PSW-Kent Publishing Company, 1989.
JÓŹWIAK J., PODGÓRSKI J.: Statystyka od podstaw. PWE, Warszawa 2000.
PAWŁOWSKI Z.: Ekonometria. PWN, Warszawa 1980.
Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania. Red. M. Cieślak. PWN, Warszawa 1997.
STAŃKO S.: Prognozowanie w rolnictwie. Wydaw. SGGW, Warszawa 1999.
ZELIAŚ A.: Teoria prognozy. PWE, Warszawa 1997.
Statistics
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
Recommend Articles
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Marcin Idzik, Aneta Stańko, Economics Conditions of Tendencies of Consumer’s Behavior on the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Market , Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej: No. 59 (2006)
- Stanisław Stańko, Marcin Idzik, The application of some quantitative forecasting methods for economic time series with trend, seasonal and irregular components , Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej: No. 42 (2000)
- Marcin Idzik, Social Conditions of the Retail Banking Development in Poland , Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej: No. 53 (2004)
- Marcin Idzik, Competitive position of the cooperative banks in the segment of micro-companies , Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej: No. 119 (2017)
- Marcin Idzik, Synthetic Business Confidence Measure in Food Processing Sector , Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej: No. 46 (2002)