Decyzje produkcyjne rolników i wyniki finansowe gospodarstw w różnych scenariuszach polityki rolnej ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem integracji z UE (na podstawie badań modelowych)

In the study, potential impacts of different policy scenarios on financial results and production decisions of farmers from Leszno and Słupsk regions were evaluated. For two representative groups of 16 farms each optimisation models were constructed with the use of linear programming technique. Three policy scenarios were examined: (i) Agenda 2000 with direct payments, (ii) Agenda 2000 without payments, (iii) "no integration" scenario, assuming the current Polish agricultural policy would be continued. The time period covers the years: 1999 (base year), 2003 (hypothetically closest date of Poland's accession), and 2007 (the most realistic date of accession). The highest farm income generated by models was under scenario Agenda 2000, with direct payments. Without payments, the farm incomes were reduced by an average of 30 per cent, mostly in farms with a high proportion of cereals and beef in output. The continuation of agricultural policy in the present form, without integration with the EU would further decline financial results at the rate differentiated depending on the farm type. Models tend to differentiate the direction of changes in firms organisation under considered policy scenarios. In two Agenda scenarios, the share of root (potatoes, sugar beets) and protein crops (specifically in variant with direct payments) in the crops general was significantly increased. Opposite direction of changes (greater part of cereals and oil-seed rape) was noted in the case of "no integration" scenario. Favourable prices relations and headage payments caused significant reduction in beef cattle under Agenda scenarios. Under "no integration" scenario with existing price relations being maintained milk production is preferred by models. In all pig farms, models tended to utilise existing stands for animals at the maximum.